投資大亨Chamath Palihapitiya (查馬特)堅持的5條投資行為準則

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為什麼要有行為準則?

成功的投資關乎行為和心理。你可以擁有世界上最好的模型或分析,但如果你恐慌,你就輸了。換句話說,每個人都有一個計劃,直到他們被打臉。

五項準則分別是

  1. 我不交易股票, 我購買公司
  2. 我試著購買未來10年有潛在10倍報酬的公司
  3. 眼光應該放遠
  4. 試著不要每天看股價
  5. 不玩衍生品

結論: 投資應該簡單化,設定對自己有效的投資行為準則,並有紀律的執行。

 

chamath pic.png

Credit: WSJ

 

為什麼要有行為準則

Investing 101: Successful investing is all about behavior and psychology. You can have the best model or analysis in the world but if you panic, you lose. Said differently, everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face. Let's begin...

 

成功的投資就是來自心理和行為準則

一旦驚慌, 將損失

即便你有最好的模型或是分析

 

#1:I don't trade stocks. I buy companies.

Buying a company is like hiring a great CEO to work for you and your family. You can rest well knowing that Bezos, Musk etc. are on the job. That's not true for all CEOs so decide accordingly.

準則一:我不交易股票, 我購買公司

購買公司像是聘僱一個好的CEO幫你工作。

雇用貝索斯、馬斯克等人,你就可以放心休息了。

並非所有 CEO 都如此,因此請做出相應的決定。

 

#2:I try to buy companies that I think can potentially 10x in 10 years.

If I'm not willing to do that, I don't buy it.  This doesn't mean that I will bat 100% but that isn't the goal.  The goal is to become disciplined in a process, repeat this process and don't deviate.

準則二: 我試著購買10年內有潛在10倍報酬的公司

如果我不願意這樣做,我就不會買。 這並不意味著我會 100% 擊球,但這不是目標。 目標是在一個過程中變得自律,重複這個過程,不要偏離。

 

#3: It's all about the annual report vs quarterly earnings.

If I become too short-term focused, I am my worst enemy and will overthink, overreact and underperform my potential. Once you've bought a company, the hardest decision is no decision...patiently waiting to be right.

準則三:眼光應該放遠

如果太重視短期營運,將過度反應而影響績效。

不做決定有時是最難的決定。

 

#4: I try not to look at prices every day.

The market has an amazing way of giving you great opportunities to see the truth. You just need to realize that the price and the truth aren't always the same. Looking at daily prices makes it harder for me to see the difference...

準則四:試著不要每天看股價

市場有一種奇妙的方式,可以提供了解真相的機會。

只需要意識到價格和真相並不總是相同的。

查看每日價格讓我更難看出差異...

 

#5: I don’t play with derivatives.

Options seem fun but they are like allowing a toddler to play with a loaded gun. You can have a few close calls but it eventually catches up with you.

準則五:不玩衍生品

選擇權商品看起來很有趣,但它們就像讓一個蹣跚學步的孩子玩上膛的槍。

你可以有時全身而退,但它最終可能對你開槍。

 

結論: 投資應該簡單化,設定對自己有效的投資行為準則,並有紀律的執行。

 

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